Fulham vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Is there are a more underrated player in the Premier League than Rico Henry? He’s been consistently performing at this level for two seasons now, showing strong one-on-one defensive nous and providing a huge threat when joining attacks.
The fact that he hasn’t even been considered for a spot in England’s 26-man World Cup squad speaks volumes. In the event that Luke Shaw or Ben Chilwell were unavailable – players to whom he’s not significantly inferior, by the way – he would be the next in line, and quite a distance ahead at that. In a recent match against Tottenham, he demonstrated an impressively advanced playing style in a wing-back position, consistently attempting to breach the defensive line and creating three scoring opportunities for his teammates. One of those opportunities resulted in a goal scored by Yoane Wissa. If he employs similar tactics in this upcoming match, the odds of 5/1 for him to provide another assist are highly appealing, especially given the anticipated high-scoring nature of the game.
PREDICTED SCORE: 2-3
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Wolves vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Before Wolves had kicked a ball this season, Brighton were almost 4/7 with Sky Bet for this fixture. Gary O’Neil’s side then stormed Old Trafford with a dynamic, organised and purposeful performance that gave off early signs that they’ll be just fine. It was a showing that shifted the Brighton price almost 13 per cent to 10/11. That is quite tempting on a team who for my money remain top-four contenders this season but instead in getting involved in the outright market, I’m all over backing the goal-line.
The betting option that catches my attention is the 11/10 odds for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in the match. This bet has been successful in 14 out of 20 away matches under Roberto De Zerbi. With the recent loss of Moises Caicedo, the average goals under his management this season might increase. This was evident in the game against Luton, where the new players created numerous counter-attacking opportunities last weekend. Brighton might need some time to adjust to the new defensive balance without their exceptional midfield destroyer.
Wolves played like a team that will throw more caution to the wind on Monday so I’d expect their average goals per game ratio to be on the up this season. This encounter looks ripe for goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Liverpool vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
Andoni Iraola has a reputation for serving it up to the big boys away from home. When managing in LaLiga, his Rayo Vallecano side put together two famous results in Barcelona – a 1-0 win and a 0-0 – whilst only going down to two 2-1 defeats at Real Madrid. On both of those trips to the Bernabéu they won the shot count, which shows his teams aren’t plagued by fear when taking on big challenges.
His aggressive, counter-attacking approach is much more suitable for a match like this where his team is not expected to dominate possession. In their recent game against West Ham, Bournemouth appeared lackluster for the first 60 minutes as West Ham allowed them to have the ball. However, Bournemouth managed to find their rhythm and finished strongly, resulting in a 1-1 draw. I’m eagerly anticipating the implementation of Iraola’s high-pressing style at Anfield. While it’s still too early in his tenure to consider the 10/1 odds for an away win from Sky Bet, we can focus on supporting Bournemouth in the shots on target markets.
With a midfield lacking in defensive balance, the Liverpool machine isn’t running to perfect working order yet and there will be opportunities for Bournemouth in transition. Jurgen Klopp’s side have faced four or more shots on target in 53 per cent of their last 40 Premier League games. When factoring in Bournemouth’s anticipated brave approach, it makes the 11/8 with Sky Bet an appealing angle for them to record four or more shots on target.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Saturday 5.30pm
Forming broad opinions or drawing strong conclusions about a team based on a mere 90 minutes of football isn’t a recommended approach. Nevertheless, I’ve become rather reserved about Manchester United’s potential for this season. This sentiment isn’t solely due to their lackluster performance against Wolves, but also because of the advancing years of key players like Casemiro and Raphael Varane. Furthermore, Erik ten Hag’s track record against top-tier opponents away from home remains concerning, as he only managed to secure one point out of a possible 24 in Premier League away matches against the top nine teams last season. This was the poorest record among all teams. I did witness enough from Tottenham to believe that Ange Postecoglou is effectively instilling his philosophy, making Spurs an intriguing option at Evens on the draw-no-bet market offered by Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 8pm
Newcastle possess the defensive structure and ability to seriously frustrate the champions – more so than the market expects. There’s enough in the prices to get me interested in this game going down a scrappy, low-scoring avenue with the under 2.5 goals line at 11/10 with Sky Bet standing out.
Last season in the Premier League, Newcastle performed solidly in six away matches against the top six teams. They only allowed five goals and secured clean sheets against Arsenal, Manchester United, and Brighton, resulting in three 0-0 draws. On average, these games had just 1.3 goals per match.
Considering Newcastle’s defensive strategy, goalkeeper Nick Pope might receive a yellow card as well, with odds of 17/2 on Sky Bet. Referees are becoming stricter about time-wasting, promptly issuing cards instead of warnings, which might lead to more away goalkeepers receiving bookings.
Prediction: The match is likely to end in a 1-1 draw.
Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 2pm
I’d expect Everton to have their moments though as they’ve averaged 14 shots per-game away from home in their last seven away days. This potentially makes the versatile Alex Iwobi interesting for a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet. He is filling in for the injured Dwight McNeil down the left and he managed four shots, two of which were on target against Fulham as his tendency to cut in on his stronger right foot opened up lots of shooting opportunities.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
West Ham vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm
Reece James’ hamstring injury really is a blow for anyone taking positive vibes on Mauricio Pochettino’a team this season. There was a huge amount to like from their performance vs Liverpool, especially in terms of their defensive structure which offered up just one shot on target to the usually rip roaring Reds attack. I’ve got an early season theory that Chelsea will be very hard to beat but also very hard to win with whilst their goalscoring issues linger and key creative forces like James are sidelined.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Monday 8pm
I’m still doubtful about Arsenal’s ability to compete for significant trophies, but Mikel Arteta’s team consistently performs well in challenging matches like this one. They had an impressive record against lower-ranked teams last season, with a combined score of 52-17. Their only two losses were narrow defeats to Everton and Nottingham Forest.
It’s clear that Roy Hodgson’s influence has been felt: in the 11 Premier League games since his return, Crystal Palace (21 points) has outperformed Arsenal (18 points). However, Palace’s trajectory might lead to settling back into a solid mid-table position due to a lack of depth across various positions.
For those looking to take a risk and enhance the odds for an away victory, consider betting on Gabriel Martinelli to score first in a 2-0 win at 30/1 with Sky Bet. He found the net against Palace in both of his starts last season and finished as their joint-top scorer with 15 Premier League goals. His tendency to exceed expected goal returns (15 goals from just 9.1 xG) makes him an appealing choice as a goalscorer. He seems to be in excellent form for a promising season on the left flank.
Prediction: The final score is likely to be 0-2.